Schreiner Says Thanks and Offers Final Thoughts

One of the disappointments for historically minded politicos was that Green Party of Ontario leader Mike Schreiner didn't get the breakthrough he wanted here in Guelph last night. Schreiner secured a healthy third place and nearly 20 per cent of the vote, but still getting less than half the popular vote that rewarded Liberal Liz Sandals with her four-peat. Schreiner and his team were probably, understandably disappointed this morning, and that sort of comes out in their below press release, which offers some thanks to his volunteers, and some consideration as to why he didn't do better in a campaign he banked so much on.

#ONelxn14 - Everything in its Right Place?

Huh. Well, that was weird. Any reasonable estimate of last night's election results foretold another minority government, it was just a question of under who and how much of a majority. Nope. The Liberals, who we were all supposed to be sick and tired of, now return to Queen's Park with a majority government, beating all reasonable expectations about the election's outcome with Kathleen Wynne now the Premier of a political secure government. Tim Hudak, leader of the Progressive Conservatives, is stepping down after the complete and utter failure in his own mandate to unseat a besieged and unpopular government. And Andrea Horwath, despite her bold and risky campaign strategy, managed to come out quits with the same number of seats coming out as she had going in. But was it all worth it? And what happens now?

2014 Provincial Election - Last Call

As the last day before the 2014 provincial election heads off into the sunset, it seems timely to leave you with a reminder to get out tomorrow and exercise your democratic franchise. But no, there's just too much bat $#!% craziness happening on the campaign trail right now. This last full day of the campaign was filled with shenanigans from all sides; misleading letters, bad taste in Photoshop, and enough sign vandalism to shake a stick at, and then use that stick to vandalize some election signs. Ladies and gentleman, this was your last day of Decision 2014. The day decorum died.

Turnout Down at Advanced Polls

Although it may not be causal in relation to how voter turnout will shake out on Election Day, it's still not an entirely positive sign for Thursday that last week's advanced polls saw fewer people come out and vote when compared to 2011. According to an article on the CBC website, turnout at the advanced polls was down six per cent from 2011, and that's potentially not a good sign if Ontario's voters want to do better than that year's dismal 48 per cent total turnout. 

This is Guelph's Slate for the 2014 Provincial Election....

The nomination period for candidates to declare themselves to run in the 2014 Ontario General Election is over. Nominations closed yesterday, so if you were waiting to get those last couple of signatures together, too bad, you'll have to wait till the next provincial election. So come June 12, you'll have to choose between one of five of the following politicians to represent you at Queen's Park...

Nothing Changes, Everything Stays the Same

They seemed to happen under the radar, and given the results that may make perfect sense now, but with three by-elections come and gone in Calgary-Centre, Durham and Victoria, the make-up of Parliament remains exactly the same.

Steve Dyck Will Be Green for Guelph

The Guelph branch of the Green Party of Ontario voted between the two men who put their names forward to represent the GPO for the Royal City in the upcoming Provincial Election last night, and Steve Dyck seems to be the man they want Guelph to send to Queen's Park. Dyck, a long time Green Party campaigner, beat out former Ward 4 City Councillor Mike Salisbury for the honour. 

So who is Steve Dyck? Here's his GPO bio:

A long time enthusiast for the Green Party’s approach to environmental, social, and economic sustainability, Steve decided to run for the GPO candidacy because he believes he has the energy and skills to engage people in the democratic process. A highly creative and socially engaged problem solver, Steve is equipped to represent Guelph and serve in Provincial Parliament, bringing long-term solutions to Ontario’s challenges. Steve takes action in the community.

• He is President of Guelph Solar Mechanical Inc., a solar heating solutions company which leads Guelph business owners and residents to participate in energy conservation programs.
• Steve stands up for democracy, the University of Guelph’s intellectual integrity and the environment, by continuing to raise Chancellor Wallin’s actions as a Senator to end debate on climate change.
• A trained mediator who voluntarily assists community members to mutually resolve differences, Steve builds bridges between people by using democratic processes to identify common values and create solutions.
• Steve coordinates the Guelph chapter of Green Drinks, a social networking group connecting citizens and businesses in the environmental industry.

The time is right for Steve to seek political office: Ontario’s energy crisis requires renewable energy expertise. As he and Vera, his partner of 20 years, send their two teenagers out into the world, Steve is enthusiastic about bringing his years as a parent, volunteer, activist, project manager, and small business owner to the political arena.

“Community building is central to the future of the Green Party,” says Steve, a philosophy he has demonstrated by opening his home for events that have become known as “Fun with Steve” nights, engaging neighbours and building Green Party membership while enjoying locally sourced food.

Steve’s central values are long- term commitment to the things that matter: building healthy relationships and communities, and having a great time doing it.

Next up, the NDP will officially make James Gordon their nominee on Monday. Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath will be in town that night to welcome Gordon to the campaign. Interestingly, GPO leader Mike Schreiner was the key note speaker at last night's AGM, which I believe was the second time in as many weeks that Schreiner's been in Guelph. 

Is Guelph a seriously in play riding this provincial election? I guess we'll know that if Dalton McGuinty and Tim Hudak roll up the Hanlon Expressway this summer.

The Shifted Ground

It's funny how an election that started with a whimper, ended up shaking the Canadian political landscape in a way not seen in nearly 20 years. In one foul swoop, the Harper Conservatives secured their first majority, the Liberals were near fatally wounded, the Green Party finally landed on the board while the Bloc Quebecois was nearly swept off it, and the NDP had their single greatest election victory ever, not only hitting triple digit seats but became the Official Opposition for the first time too. If you look at the CBC's election map, you'd swear Canada were the new Edmonton Oilers logo (and perhaps given the winner of last night's election, the allegory is apropos).

Now the question is, what will these results mean for the next four years to Canada, and will the political map keep this new order or is it a one-time glitch. Let's break it down:

Conservatives - 167 seats - 39.62 per cent of the popular vote

The third time's the charm. Stephen Harper has secured his majority, but a lot of the problems that plagued him and his party remain. There's the small matter that despite winning a majority of seats, the Conservatives only gained two points in popularity. It makes a case for some serious voting splitting on the left from one end of this nation to the next to the next, as the combined NDP-Liberal vote won nearly 50 per cent of the popular vote. Three out of five people voted for someone that doesn't make up the government. (Incidentally, I think every election now makes a stronger case for electoral reform, but that's another discussion entirely.)

While basking in victory, the morning after analysis might offer some strong sobriety. There were licks taken in this election about the party's secretiveness and limited availability, the fact that they are just a little less of a non-entity in Quebec than the Bloc, and the little change in popular support despite a majority. Given these conditions, can the frequently cited "radical right" agenda people fear about Harper be enacted to its fullest? And the problem remains that Harper still has no obvious successor as the Conservatives are as much a cult of personality as they are a political party.

The fact of the matter is that the people voted for an end to elections every two years. Come what may, we know that the next election is four years away now, and for some people, that's all the piece of mind they need in Harper's Canada. (Or at least for 40 per cent of the 61.4 per cent of eligible votes that rolled out to the polls yesterday.)

NDP - 102 seats - 30.62 per cent of the popular vote

It was a wild night for Jack Layton. Thanks to big, huge gains in Quebec the NDP leader finally broke through and became the voice of Canada's left, and the official Opposition Party. A good question is, what happens now? A better question is, how did it happen in the first place?

While no one can doubt that there was a sudden and complete shift to the NDP in Quebec, I have yet to hear a complete analysis of the reason or reasons. Layton's debate performance? Well, it was a delayed reaction if that's the case. Some talk show appearance? Well then, this must have been the most politically important talk show since David Frost interviewed Richard Nixon. The real picture, again, I think comes down to fatigue. The average Quebecer, seeing no progress in the representation of French issues by voting Bloc, and being reticent about supporting the Liberals again - or heaven forbid, the Conservatives - were looking for a new direction, and by process of elimination, that choice was the NDP.

From here on, one of two things can happen. The next four years could see an NDP building strength and support, gaining the confidence of more and more Canadians and poised for a breakthrough to, at the very least, a minority government situation of their own. But Quebec is the X factor. Will French Canadians be satisfied by NDP representation? Do the NDP know what to do/have what it takes to keep French Canadians in the supporters column? It should be interesting to see what the new Quebecois influence will have on the New Democrats.

Liberals - 34 seats - 18.91 per cent of the popular vote

Ouch. There are no words. This is easily the most crushing defeat of a major Canadian political party since the PC's in 1993 (with one exception discussed next). Michael Ignatieff, once the promise of a new generation of Liberal power, is defeated on almost every level, including personal, losing his own riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore by nearly 3,000 votes to Tory Bernard Trottier. The case of Ignatieff is that once again the candidate that looked good on paper did not translate into ballots checked. The Liberals were too soft in response to Conservative attack ads and just couldn't get past the assault. A prime minister and party censured for the first time ever by Parliament, accusations of secret keeping and other shadowy activities, and an economy still in a relative shambles, and the Liberals still weren't able to capitalize. Where was the disconnect?

The answer to that is, in part, because of Ignatieff's charisma gap, but it's not all on him. The NDP surge was too strong, and the momentum was with Jack Layton. The Liberals couldn't make the point to vote strategically, and if they could, people were already starting to think of the NDP as the strategic option. Where does the Liberal Party go from here? Well, not gently into that good night. There may be an opportunity for rebound, if only because the party still has nearly three dozen MPs in the House, and a storied history that goes back to Confederation. The gap may still be too wide for official merger talks with the NDP, and Layton may not think he needs the help, but there is the possibility, and likely probability, for more collusion. As for leader replacements, that's going to be tough; tough to see who might step in, tough to see how anyone can turn the boat around. But if the Liberals could say one thing this morning, it's that they aren't the...

Bloc Quebecois - 4 seats - 6.05 per cent of the popular vote 

Considering the enormous personal popularity of Gilles Duceppe, it seems that Quebecers left the party like rats fleeing a sinking ship. I don't think anyone called this reversal of fortune for the Bloc, even me. As I pointed out the day before the election, the Bloc surges and then it ebbs. But in this case, it's like the tide went out completely, and the question is will it ever return? Can the Bloc come back from this defeat? It depends on how you answer this question: Is separation still important to a significant percentage of French Canadians? If the answer is yes, then the Bloc will be back in some form in 2015; if not, then this might be the last we've seen of the Separatist Party. 

Green Party - 1 seat - 3.9 per cent of the popular vote

Elizabeth May finally won her seat in the House of Commons, but the cost seems to be a loss of about half of the Green Party's popular support over the 2008 election (in '08, that was 6.8 per cent). Really, the Greens were as much a victim of the NDP's surge as the Liberals, but that didn't stop May from making history by becoming the Green MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands. (And not only that, but she defeated Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn by over 7,000 votes.) The question is what happens now? Can May be effectual in the House as a party of one? Where do the Green Party's fortunes go from here? One thing's for sure, no one will be able to block May from a leaders' debate again.

But no matter what happens next, this is what Canada looks like today. Who would have guessed that 40 days ago...?

Busy Times for Salisbury

It appears that Mike Salisbury isn't letting his loss in last fall's Municipal Election slow him down. Quite the opposite actually as he's now looking towards a higher office.

Posted on the Guelph Mercury's 59 Carden St. blog this morning is a release from the local Green Party of Ontario office, officially announcing that Salisbury is seeking the Green nomination to be their candidate in this fall's Provincial Election. “Electing Canada’s first Green Party member will send a strong message that Guelph is a leader in Canada’s green industrial revolution,” said Salisbury in the press release. “What we need most is a local change agent who understands the cultural dynamics of our city, and can leverage our local energy initiatives to create sustainable, high-paying jobs here in Guelph.”

But along with kicking off ambitions for provincial office, Salisbury is also appearing on the CBC show Dragon’s Den this week with his new Guelph-based business Tribute Caskets, which manufactures environmentally-friendly caskets that can also feature artwork and photo designs to better memorialize the deceased. You can learn more about Tribute Caskets here, which is the first in a line of environmentally-friendly post-death products being developed by the company. To follow Salisbury's adventure on Dragon's Den, visit the show's website here.  

As for Salisbury political ambitions, he's currently running unopposed for the Green Party of Ontario nomination, but the ballot remains open until April 17th. It looks like the Provincial Election is going to be a hot one for the riding of Guelph in terms of candidates with sunger/songwriter James Gordon trying for the NDP nomination. Current MPP will be running again for the Liberals, and there's be no word yet on who might be running for the PCs.

James Gordon Wants to Be NDP

After years of being the singing voice for progressive issues in the City of Guelph, singer/songwriter James Gordon now wants to be its actual voice at Queens Park. According to today's Guelph Mercury, Gordon is one of two high-profile candidates vying for the NDP nomination for this fall's Provincial Election, the other is Susan Wheeler, writer, educator and advocate for the disabled. According to NDP Federal candidate Bobbi Stewart, the local Provincial New Democrats are expecting to have their nomination meeting sometime for the end of April. Local PC's are also looking for a candidate and the Green Party says that they'll begin their search sometime this week. Current MPP and Liberal Party candidate Liz Sandals will be running again for a third term.

Bob Bell no longer Green

In a bit of surprise election news, though not in the election we expected, Bob Bell has officially stepped down as the Green Party candidate for Guelph in the next federal election. Bell's reason is that he believes that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will call a spring election, which will conflict with the busiest time in Bell's bicycle-trailer manufacturing company.

“My business is seasonal — busy in spring and slow in fall,” Bell told the Guelph Mercury. “Originally it appeared as though we’d have a fall election and I was ready for that. But now an election is likely in the spring, and that’s not good timing for me.”

Bell continued to say that while the responsibilities of being a federal candidate were minimum outside of an election period, the 40-60 hour per week commitment would be too much for him in the event of a spring election.

As for Bell's other job, the one that he's got to run for again in a few months anyway, Bell's still not sure if he's going to have another go at city council. “Some days I’m going to run again; some days I’m not. I just don’t know right now,” he said.

In an interesting side note, Bell's runner-up for the Green Party nomination was Russell Ott, is now running for Ward 1 city councillor, one of two seats currently held by Bell. As for the Greens, Bell expects a new nominee to be named before year's end, probably in the fall.

New Jobs Coming to Guelph

Big news today in Guelph as a well-known and accomplished Chinese manufacturer of solar modules is moving to town to set up a shop. This is good news for the 300-500 jobs that will be put on the block for Guelphites, as well as fulfilling the promise of bring more green jobs to the city, which has been a heavily campaigned topic in recent elections. To the press release:

GUELPH, ON, August 11, 2010 – Canadian Solar Inc., the world’s eighth largest solar module company, announced today it will establish a solar module manufacturing facility in Guelph, bringing 300 to 500 jobs to the city. The facility will be one of the largest on the continent.

"Today’s announcement by Canadian Solar Inc. means hundreds of good jobs for Guelph,” said Mayor Karen Farbridge at this morning’s announcement at 545 Speedvale Ave in Guelph, future home of Canadian Solar’s facility. “It shows early success of the City’s economic development plan, Prosperity 2020, and represents the number one objective of the Community Energy Initiative, which is to position Guelph as a place to invest.”

City officials and Canadian Solar executives are attributing today’s announcement in large part to Guelph’s Community Energy Initiative—Guelph’s ambitious and internationally recognized plan to use less energy in 25 years than it does today, consume less energy per capita than comparable Canadian cities, and produce less greenhouse gas per capita than the current global average.

With cities around the world watching Guelph’s innovative model of reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, today’s announcement is a strong example of the Community Energy Initiative in action; government, business, investors, and citizens working together to build sustainable communities as a way to address the most serious ecological challenge of our time: climate change.

“We chose Ontario and Guelph because of the province’s and city’s strong research and development, and the local and provincial governments’ commitment to investing in a low carbon economy,” said Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman, President and CEO of Canadian Solar Inc. “The site selection for the new facility spread across Ontario, but in the end Guelph was chosen over several major cities as a result of its commitment to making sustainability the hallmark of the community through the Community Energy Initiative.”

Since the adoption of the Plan on which Guelph’s Community Energy Initiative was based, the Province of Ontario has implemented the Green Energy Act, helping to spawn a very active solar energy market.

“Guelph is another example of Ontario’s success in attracting clean energy investment and jobs,” said Brad Duguid, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure. “Canadian Solar’s decision to locate its first North American manufacturing plant in Guelph is a great vote of confidence in the city, the province, and the Green Energy Act.”

Guelph MPP Liz Sandals added, “Canadian Solar’s announcement of a new solar panel manufacturing facility in Guelph demonstrates the success of Ontario’s Green Energy Act in generating new investments in solar energy. And, the creation of hundreds of new jobs begins Guelph’s transformation to a new green economy."

Canadian Solar Inc.’s Guelph facility is valued at about $24 million, with the first phase of operations expected to begin later this year. At full capacity the facility’s total output will generate solar-based power that exceeds the entire current electrical demand of the Guelph community. The Guelph facility will be Canadian Solar Inc.’s first outside of China.

Additionally, Organic Meadow and Steen’s Dairy opened a new facility in Guelph today. Carol Mitchell, Ontario Minister of Agrculture, Food and Rural Affairs was in attendance along with many of the farmers who supply the dairy.

The Revolution Starts in Guelph (Apparently)

Guelph was the place that Sylvie Lemieux, a former Lt. Colonel in the Canadian Forces and accomplished civil engineer, launched her campaign to succeed Elizabeth May as Green Party of Canada leader last Saturday.

The setting was the backyard of the home of Bob Bell. Bell, the locally acclaimed candidate for the Green Party in the next federal election, who was hosting a barbecue get-together for local Greens. Lemieux made her announcement as the clock winds down on an August 2nd vote by party members on constitutional changes that would stymie the requirement for a leadership contest before the end of 2010. This is the fourth year of May’s four year term as leader of the Green Party of Canada, but with the near constant spectre of a federal election, May has been advocating that now’s not the time for a potentially divisive leadership contest.

“There are several people who will run for leadership when there is a leadership race and by far the numbers of people who want to run for leadership don’t want to have a leadership race before the next election,” May told the Globe and Mail. “They don’t think it will be in the best interests of the party.”

Lemieux, obviously, disagrees. ““This is not about running against Elizabeth May,” Lemieux told the Globe. “This is about creating a better option for Canadians by building the party into a true contender that's more attuned to Canadians from coast to coast.”

At Saturday’s barbecue, Bell, our local man in Green, was noncommittal, but believed that the party needed to look at their leadership situation head on. “Elizabeth has been the leader for four years, so it’s time to ask the question, and Sylvie is doing so,” Bell said. “There’s been this possible impending election for a year and a half and I believe that’s why our leadership issue has been pushed back.”

Still, it’s interesting that Lemieux would choose Guelph to make her declaration of interest in heading the Green Party. Our sorted little berg has long been considered a possible “breakthrough” riding for the party, and in the past two elections (the 2007 Provincial and the 2008 Federal) the Green candidate finished third. As for that elusive next Federal election, Lemieux says don’t worry because Prime Minister Stephen Harper “has no incentive to get into an election before [2011].”

For the sake of my political sanity I'm banking on their not being both a Federal and Municipal election this fall.

Read the Mercury story here.
Read the Globe story here.

Photo courtesy of the Guelph Mercury.

Innovation is Coming

From the "Hey, maybe this will stifle some of those HST grumbles" file, comes word that the Government of Ontario and the City of Guelph has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in regards to the City's plan for the Guelph Innovation District. Now off the top, an MOU sounds a bit like when you tell your buddy that you'll get the next round when he buys your beer, but you say you've got to get home before it comes to that, but apparently, this is big news.

"The MOU signed today commits a portion of provincially-owned land in the district to the city’s plan to create this new, innovative employment area," said a joint press release. "This is part of the province’s Open Ontario Plan to help create clean, green jobs and support innovation."

But don't take some faceless press release's word for it:

“Moving Ontario toward a cleaner, brighter, more prosperous future is not only about generating new renewable energy, but about fostering research and innovation in cities like Guelph," said Brad Duguid, Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, who was actually in town for the announcement. "Today’s MOU signifies our commitment to working with the city of Guelph to bring an Innovation District to life on these lands.”

“Guelph residents will welcome this Memorandum of Understanding which sets out a joint vision for the future development of the provincial lands in Guelph’s York District," said our own MPP Liz Sandals. "The Guelph Innovation District plan brings together an exciting blend of green jobs, cutting edge innovation, and environmentally-friendly places to live and do business that will benefit our community for years to come.”

“Home to as many as 5000 people and 10,000 jobs, these lands will bring together the best and brightest minds to address provincial and global environmental and technological challenges," said Mayor Karen Farbridge. "As a carbon neutral LEED-Neighbourhood, this urban village will demonstrate new approaches and technologies to manage the urban environment redefining our experience of city living.”

The end game: The City of Guelph anticipates the District will accommodate 10,000 of the 32,400 jobs projected for the City by the year 2031. The Guelph Innovation District is bounded by York Road, Victoria Road South, the York-Watson Industrial Park and the City’s southern border and almost half of it is owned by the province.

Calling all Greens

This is special note to all Guelph Greens, your Annual General Meeting is this Monday. Look at the information below and act accordingly.

Green Party of Guelph Annual General Meeting, Monday, April 19, 6:00 PM, Norfolk United Church

Doors open at 6:00 PM, Meeting runs from 6:30 -9:30 PM
Featured Speakers:
Bob Desautels - from the Neighbourhood Group (Borealis and Woolwich Pub) on creating a locally supplied business
Evan Ferrari - from TREC (the group that runs the Toronto Wind Turbine) on “Renewable Energy and Community Power in Ontario”
Bob Bell - Federal Green Party Candidate update

Other features of the meeting include an update on progress in 2009, goals for 2010, and electing the 2010 executive!

For more information see Guelph Greens or email Patti at pdorland[at]gto[dot]net

New Year's Resolutions

So, it's four days into the New Year and I'm already behind... Qu'elle surprise! That's okay, I'll get there. Anyway, all this New Year's stuff got me thinking about my goals for this year in regards to my various assets.

Last year was a transformative year for me (as they should all be) where I sort of left the listlessness of 2008 and seemed to find some genuine direction. Or perhaps too much direction. One of the things that got lost in the shuffle was The Politico, which sometimes suffered for weeks at a time without an update.

Granted when Guelph Politico started it was as the Guelph By-Election Blog '08 and was intended to last for 6 weeks in the Summer of 2008. But then the By-Election became a full-blown election and 6 weeks turned into 12 weeks. After that I was content to let GB-EB08 become part of the internet tapestry of hibernating sites, but soon after I realized that politics in Guelph are too big for my weekly 600 word Echo column, and thus The Guelph Politico was born.

Well, last year I managed to barely beat the number of posts I did in half the time the year before, which, yeah, is sort of unacceptable. This year, I've decided to change that. It is an election year after all, so if there was ever a better time to get onboard with being onboard, then I don't know what is. So below, I've written a few goals I have for the year. Why? Because unless I write something down, I'll completely forget about it.

1. I'm going to get back to doing the "Better Know a Ward" segments. I got halfway done last Christmas and I still have half a city to go. So if you're a councillor for Wards 4, 5 or 6, be warned. I'll be in touch soon or soonish.
2. Catch up with Federal politics. Apparently Parliament's getting prorogued again (for the Olympics?), but frankly I haven't heard too much about this. And speaking of Frank...
3. I hope to be interviewing Frank Valeriote again soon. It was something I've been meaning to do since the first anniversary of his election in October, but c'est la vie.
4. Along with that, I hope to get a chance to sit down with the other named Federal candidates so far, Marty Burke for the Conservatives and Bob Bell for the Greens, and get to know their stands a little better. At least before an election's called (But if it were up to me, I'd wait one more year so as not to distract from the municipals in the fall. Speaking of which...)
5. I'd like to look at of the issues in Guelph more in depth, particularly transit. Actually, especially transit.
   
6. Hanlon Creek Business Park Part II. I'll be there because you know that as soon as the snow melts, it's on!
7. I'm toying with the idea of having guest columnists on The Politico so that they can talk about the issues that are important to them heading into the election. Actually, it's more than a toy, I'm just working out the logistics. If you're interested, stay tuned.
   

That's all I can think of for now. Of course, odd bits will continue to come up every now and then and I look forward to seeing what this new year has in store for me and, indeed, all of us.

Flashback

This is the 70th, and final, posting of the Guelph By-Election '08 blog, and what a ride it's been. Our little six week by-election turned into a 12 week free for all as a full blown Federal campaign got underway.

Now normally, I consider anything to do with politics to be a happy occasion, but as this race closed on Tuesday, I saw a lot of sadness. I saw disappointment. And I saw humility.

Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning, whenever it was), I saw a lot of humility from the winners. Whether it was Stephen Harper glumly accepting the election results and the fact he just might have to get along with the other parties, or, more locally, with Frank Valeriote's words of co-operation that probably stem from the fact he's the only Liberal MP from Mississauga and North London.

But mostly I remember the disappointment; like the day after "Keep on Truckin'" e-mail from the Department of Culture or the melancholy looks of Green and NDP supporters, especially after they tasted victory during the care-free, summer days of the by-election.

As for the sadness, that's probably all me, I think. The by-election made Guelph special, more special than we usually think it is, anyway. I loved the cavalcade of special politician appearances and the regular chats with leaders and high profile MPs, and townhalls and press conferences and such. It was awesome! For a time. And then Harper canceled the whole thing and we had to start from scratch with much less fanfare.

So it goes.

But now it's time for my final thoughts.

1) I hope Frank Valeriote's sincere about working to build bridges with the other parties, though I have no reason to doubt he isn't. Over 60 per cent of the country voted for someone who's not a Conservative, so it's important that the centre-left parties work out their petty differences to focus on their greater commonalities.

2) Maybe next election, Jack Layton should focus on a different battleground than Ontario, Western Canada. The NDP won 9 ridings in British Columbia, 8 in Central Northern Ontario, 4 in Manitoba, and most importantly, one in Edmonton-Scrathcona. Plus the party finished second in a great many ridings, a distant second mind you, but it's a base to build on nonetheless.

3) Don't get Stéphane Dion angry. You won't like him when he's angry.

4) Greens shouldn't look on this election as a failure. You got Elizabeth May in the leaders' debate and that's a monumental achievement. There were strong Green finishes it terms of both vote share (like Mike Nagy's 21 per cent share in Guelph) and placement (like a second place finish in the Macleod riding in Alberta). There's some incredible political ground to capitalize on here.

5) Stephen Harper liked to brag about leadership, well now he has to show some. No provoking the parties into bringing down Parliament. No making every vote a confidence motion. And no jockeying and fronting like you've got a mandate from the Canadian people, especially when 62.37 per cent of those people don't want you there.

Anyway, that's all for now. Before signing off I want to thank all of you who read my blog and especially the ones who went so far as to leave comments. It's been a heck of a commitment, but it's been a blast. Keep following my stuff in Echo, which I hope will be more municipally focused in the weeks to come. And who knows, maybe we'll try this again in a couple of years.

From all of us at Guelph By-Election '08, and by 'us,' I mean 'me,' I say, "Good Night and Good Luck."

http://www.myspace.com/adamadonaldson

Post-Election New Rules

After every election, I like to take stock and outline briefly some of my thoughts and opinions about the spectacle we all just witnessed. To facilitate the organization of thought, and to inject a little humour, I take a page from the book of Bill Maher, literally...

...and come up with some New Rules of my own.

New Rule: Danny Williams has to be the new leader of the Liberal Party. - Granted he's currently the Progressive Conservative Premier of Newfoundland, but the idea of prominent party leaders crossing the floor is not unheard of - ask Jean Charet. Williams, mad as hell and not going to take it anymore, effectively cock-blocked Harper from getting a seat in NFLD. First he denounced Harper for backing out of the Atlantic Accords, then he started the "Anyone But Conservative" campaign and then he told the fundraisers in his province that if they wanted to keep doing business with him, they won't do business with Harper. The only thing left for Williams to do is take this thing 'cross Canada.

New Rule: If you say you're going to co-operate in Parliament, you have to mean it. - This is the third minority government we've sent to Ottawa, and for the third time, all the party leaders came out afterward saying, "We are going to work together to make Parliament work." But instead of a collegial atmosphere of dialogue and hard work, we've gotten this:






New Rule: Alberta has to get over it. - Remember: "The West wants in." Well, the west is in now. The party they back is the party in power. The oil sands of Alberta power our economy. So why, oh why, is that province still all coloured blue. I know that Canadians have an inferiority complex, but come on!

New Rule: Ignatieff supporters can't say I told you so to Stéphane Dion. - I know a lot of you out there are saying that this wouldn't have happened if Iggy was running the boat. But the fact of the matter is he's just as professorial as Dion, and he has the notable demerit of having only returned to Canada 2 years ago after some 30 years abroad and only came back after practically being begged by Ian Davey and Daniel Brock. Harper may have called Canada a "northern European welfare state," but at least he was here when he said it.

New Rule: Don't break you're own fixed election rule. - $300 million is a lot of money to spend in order to realize that most of the people in this country, still don't really like you that much.

New Rule: John Turmel has to keep running. - With the long list of candidates, the rules at many of the debates were kind of stringent. But Turmel's off the cuff and brutally honest debate responses kept things lively, no matter where you sat on the issue of LETS or professional gambling.

New Rule: Dalton McGuinty should get off the pot. - He didn't endorse his own party, saying that he was just looking out for the best interest of Ontarians because he was going to have to work with the person that formed the government, whoever they may be. I recognize the political tact of hedging your bets, but does the Premier really think that his relationship with the Conservative government can get any worse?

New Rule: Manuel Couto has to reveal himself so that we know he's real. - To my knowledge, the Marxist-Leninist candidate didn't give one interview, make a single public appearance or participate in any all-candidate forum or debate. You've gotta play to win and for me the biggest surprise of the evening was that 29 people knew enough about Couto to want to vote for him.

New Rule: Jack Layton has to stop comparing himself to Barack Obama. - Okay, he never said it out right, but we all saw the little wink when he said, "Vote for the New Democrats." Because we all know who else is a Democrat...

New Rule: We need to have a serious conversation about reforming our democracy. - Now, I've never been a fan of proportional representation. And the form of mixed-member proportional representation proposed by the Ontario government last year never explained where the proportional members would come from, which is one of many reasons why it failed.

But when a party nearly gets majority status with less than 40 per cent of the vote, it's time to look at how and why we elect our government. The fact that the Bloc Quebecois got 50 seats with 10 per cent of the vote, while the Greens got zero with 7 per cent really says a lot about why people might think their vote doesn't count.

Beyond simple numbers though, look at the geography. If NDP or Green voters in Guelph really think their voices aren't heard hear in Ontario, imagine what's like for your colleagues out in Alberta.

In Quebec, it looked like the fortunes of the Bloc were going down until the Conservatives imploded in the fallout of the arts cuts, and went on to win two-thirds of the seats in Quebec. This despite the fact that in Quebec, the Parti Quebecois has become the third ranked party, suggesting that separation isn't the hot topic it once was. But now Quebecers find their fortunes represented by what is essentially a special interest party, and you've got to figure that there a lot of voters displeased. Look at the numbers in Quebec and it's practically a reflection of those nationwide with the Bloc getting only 38 per cent support.

So what to do? Well, Harper's such a big supporter of Senate reform, why not let the Upper House be elected, and elected through proportionality, along with the other proposed changes. Let the Senate have greater influence on policy, by making it more reflective of proper party support, and their policies there in, while the House members remain chosen as the representatives of their riding in the Parliament by being elected by majority.

Now I admit, I haven't thoroughly thought out the details of this plan, and it might not work, but let's at least start the discussion. Otherwise, I fear we're going to do this again and again till either a majority like Harper or the Liberals get smarter. In other words: forever.

Nothing Changes; Everything Stays the Same

So here's what is:

*The Conservatives get a minority government
*The Liberals face a leadership dilemma
*The Bloc finishes with some surprisingly strong results
*The NDP get a few more seats...
*...while the Greens get none

I'm confused, are we talking about the 2006 election or the 2008 one?

Yep, not much shifted on the old toll board last night, except that the Liberals now have fewer seats, the Conservatives have a bunch more and the NDP picked a few new caucus members as well. It breaks down like so, but remember that a few contest may be contested being that they're so close:

*The Conservatives: 143 (+19)
*Liberals: 76 (-27)
*Bloc Quebecois: 50 (-1)
*NDP: 37 (+8)
*Green: 0 (-1)
*Independent: 2 (+2)

Weirdness abound last night as many tight races nationwide yielded some unexpected results. One of those tight ridings was Guelph, whose fate wasn't determined until well around midnight. In the end, it was Frank Valeriote winning the day and the riding with 18,977 or 32 per cent of the vote. Gloria Kovach placed a very strong second with 17,185 votes, or 29.18 per cent. Interestingly, that was Brent Barr's vote share in '06, though Kovach closed the gap between Liberal and Conservative to just under 2,000 votes. And though he finished third, Mike Nagy can't be disappointed having secured 12,500 votes in Guelph.

But Guelph will be lonely wearing red this time, as we're surrounded by Conservative blue in all three Kitchener-Waterloo ridings, Cambridge and Wellington-Halton Hills. Also lonely is the Saskatchewan riding of Wascana, which was the only place in the province to elect a non-Conservative, Liberal Ralph Goodale. And it wasn't all good news for the Conservatives as their Alberta stronghold sprung an orange-coloured leak in the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona. Linda Duncan beat Rahim Jaffer by a little over 500 votes.

Not so good news is that voter turnout reached an all-time low: 59.1 per cent. Boo, Canada. Boo. What's the excute this time? Washing you're hair? Too much homework? Couldn't find a ride? All right, enough sarcasm. What was interesting in watching the CBC's coverage last night was the number of people writing in to advocate the need for electoral reform. Looking at the seat to vote percentage ratio, it's not hard to imagine why. The Conservatives have a near majority even though 63 per cent of voters but an 'x' beside the name of another party's candidate. The Bloc gets 50 seats for their 10 per cent vote share, while the Green party gets none with almost 7 per cent.

There's a lot going on in the minds of politically engaged right now, myself included. I'll have some more analysis over the next couple of days so keep checking back.

One Day at a Time

Happy Thanksgiving to one and all! And happy Election Day's Eve to the same, although I say this especially to the citizens of Guelph. Remember the last Election Day's Eve when our by-election was canceled less than 24 hours before the polls opened in favour of a Federal race? Oh, good times!

But seriously, it seems we have no idea what's going to go down tomorrow. In town its a tight race, and across the nation, in a poll cited on CTV News last night, 46 per cent said that they haven't firmed up their decision about whom they're voting for with 12 per cent adding that they probably won't make their minds until they get to the ballot box.

What does this mean? Strategic Voting, my friends. A poll done by Ipsos-Reid for the Canwest News Service back during the first week of the campaign showed that 54 per cent of Canadians were not in favour of a Conservative majority government and that 38 per cent of them were prepared to vote strategically to prevent it.

The CTV/Global and Mail poll showed the Election Day numbers thusly:
* Conservative: 33 per cent (-2)
* Liberal: 28 per cent (-2)
* NDP: 18 per cent (none)
* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)
* Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)

The only party to make gains going into the last weekend of campaigning was the Green Party and one would figure if the trend was going towards strategic voting, than they'd be showing a loss. Confused yet? Yeah, me too.

Now pollsters say that 40 per cent in the polls is a good indication as to whether or not a party is going to end up with a majority government and with the Conservatives hovering around roughly a solid third of the nation in support, things seem unlikely for Harper's majority hopes. So it begs the question: if the Conservatives win, does that mean we'll get another Conservative-led Parliament? Not necessarily.

Many think that should Harper win another minority, it might spur a couple of the other parties to set aside differences out of the common interest in not seeing Harper as PM. The likely team-up would be the Liberals and NDP, it's been done before in Ontario, and a lot of people are wondering why it can't be done again. Even Gilles Duceppe has swallowed hard and said that he'd be interested in a limited partnership with the Liberals, on issues such as the environment, so long as it's in the best interest of Quebecers.

In the same CTV/Globe poll, 46 per cent of the responders said that they'd favour a Lib-NDP coalition to usurp the Conservatives, while 41 per cent said that they did not. Pollsters said that these numbers fell mostly within party lines. You will note however that pollsters are the only ones open to the possibility right now. In Halifax Thursday, Dion emphatically ruled it out, and when I broached the subject with Bob Rae in our brief talk on Friday, he said that the Liberals were focused on winning a majority and that any talk of coalitions was extremely pre-mature.

So it should be interesting to see the reutrns tomorrow night, to say the least.