Keeping Tabs on Lloyd

Travelling down to city council every week to keep tabs on the members of our local government is easy, but what about keeping tabs on Guelph's Member of Parliament from a few hundred kilometres away? It's tricky, but not impossible thanks to online tools. So if you feel like keeping tabs on Lloyd, that is to say, if you want to know what our MP, Lloyd Longfield, is up to in the House of Commons, here's how you can do it.

Here's what Lloyd Longfield Said in his First Speech in the House

Although he didn't get one of your fancy cabinet seats, Guelph MP Lloyd Longfield is still taking care of business in the House of Commons. In his first address in said House, Longfield rose to salute a Guelphite who's doing his part on the preeminent human rights issue of our time, assisting Syrian refugees.

Valeriote Makes Law and News on his Last Day in the Commons

Just because it's Frank Valeriote's last week on the job, doesn't mean he's going to leave without one last accomplishment. Today, on Valeriote's last day on Parliament Hill, a private members bill he shepherded though the Commons received Royal Assent, and it will be to grieving Canadian families who will reap the benefit of Valeriote's last act as a legislator.

A Farewell by Frank (to Parliament)

With the legislative year winding down, many MPs are enjoying (or dreading) their last days in office. Over 50 Members of Parliament from all parties have decided that they will not run for re-election in this coming fall's Federal campaign, and one of those politicians is Guelph's own Frank Valeriote. For many residents of the city and riding of Guelph, Valeriote is considered a great and influential public servant, one that's been open, available, and responsive to the people he represents. As much as politicos look forward to an open horse race here in October, Valeriote will be missed. And if you read his final remarks in the House of Commons below, you can tell that he's going to miss it too.

And There's Still a Senate, Why...?

There's been no shortage of scandal involving the Harper government, from robocalls to high-priced fighter jets to back-bench revolts and that $3 billion to combat terrorism that got lost in the cushions. I wonder though, when we look back at the prime ministership of Stephen Harper will it be the actions of the senators he appointed that will reflect the most badly on him?

The Global Bore on Terror

Two weeks ago Monday, following the tragic events of Boston, CTV interviewed Tom Ridge as part of their coverage. Now Ridge is the former Secretary of Homeland Security, and aside from being the first man to hold that title and helping to manage the largest re-organization of the U.S. government in its history, his tenure in that post was largely unremarkable.

But Ridge, and this is how I took his appearance on the news, is a symbol of the immediate reaction post-9/11, a reminder that sweeping action was taken without a lot of thought about the consequences following a terrorist attack on American soil. Looking back on those events, it's easy to see where things might have gone wrong, and where other things might have gone too far, which is why it's a relief that any kind of visceral and emotional overreaction has been avoided - for the most part.

Valeriote Calls PBO Politics on Harper

There's been discussion in the news recently about the Harper government's stifling of environmental scientists, forcing them to handle all their press communications through the Office of the Privy Council, but obviously, if you know anything about the way Prime Minister Stephen Harper handles his business, that's not the only section of government affairs that needs the proverbial royal seal of approval.

In a press release set out yesterday, Guelph MP Frank Valeriote addressed the matter of the next Parliamentary Budget Officer, quoting his recent comments in the House of Commons. It's the kind of thing that seems like inside baseball, matters of procedure that only matter much to parliamentarians and politicos, but as the saying goes, the devil's in the details.

The 91

Last night in the House of Commons, a miracle happened: sensibility and intelligence won. 

The vote on Motion 312 occurred on the floor of the House yesterday evening and was defeated by a count of 203 to 91. That's a pretty wide margin, but for a vote that could have had permanent and regressive implications for abortion rights in this country, the margin is maybe too close for a lot of progressives in this country. To them, in Canada, where abortion rights have been largely secured for nearly a quarter of a century since the Morgentaler decision, this move is as striking and daring as the decision of politicians in Virginia demanding evasive medical procedures by law for women seeking abortion. 

The Shifted Ground

It's funny how an election that started with a whimper, ended up shaking the Canadian political landscape in a way not seen in nearly 20 years. In one foul swoop, the Harper Conservatives secured their first majority, the Liberals were near fatally wounded, the Green Party finally landed on the board while the Bloc Quebecois was nearly swept off it, and the NDP had their single greatest election victory ever, not only hitting triple digit seats but became the Official Opposition for the first time too. If you look at the CBC's election map, you'd swear Canada were the new Edmonton Oilers logo (and perhaps given the winner of last night's election, the allegory is apropos).

Now the question is, what will these results mean for the next four years to Canada, and will the political map keep this new order or is it a one-time glitch. Let's break it down:

Conservatives - 167 seats - 39.62 per cent of the popular vote

The third time's the charm. Stephen Harper has secured his majority, but a lot of the problems that plagued him and his party remain. There's the small matter that despite winning a majority of seats, the Conservatives only gained two points in popularity. It makes a case for some serious voting splitting on the left from one end of this nation to the next to the next, as the combined NDP-Liberal vote won nearly 50 per cent of the popular vote. Three out of five people voted for someone that doesn't make up the government. (Incidentally, I think every election now makes a stronger case for electoral reform, but that's another discussion entirely.)

While basking in victory, the morning after analysis might offer some strong sobriety. There were licks taken in this election about the party's secretiveness and limited availability, the fact that they are just a little less of a non-entity in Quebec than the Bloc, and the little change in popular support despite a majority. Given these conditions, can the frequently cited "radical right" agenda people fear about Harper be enacted to its fullest? And the problem remains that Harper still has no obvious successor as the Conservatives are as much a cult of personality as they are a political party.

The fact of the matter is that the people voted for an end to elections every two years. Come what may, we know that the next election is four years away now, and for some people, that's all the piece of mind they need in Harper's Canada. (Or at least for 40 per cent of the 61.4 per cent of eligible votes that rolled out to the polls yesterday.)

NDP - 102 seats - 30.62 per cent of the popular vote

It was a wild night for Jack Layton. Thanks to big, huge gains in Quebec the NDP leader finally broke through and became the voice of Canada's left, and the official Opposition Party. A good question is, what happens now? A better question is, how did it happen in the first place?

While no one can doubt that there was a sudden and complete shift to the NDP in Quebec, I have yet to hear a complete analysis of the reason or reasons. Layton's debate performance? Well, it was a delayed reaction if that's the case. Some talk show appearance? Well then, this must have been the most politically important talk show since David Frost interviewed Richard Nixon. The real picture, again, I think comes down to fatigue. The average Quebecer, seeing no progress in the representation of French issues by voting Bloc, and being reticent about supporting the Liberals again - or heaven forbid, the Conservatives - were looking for a new direction, and by process of elimination, that choice was the NDP.

From here on, one of two things can happen. The next four years could see an NDP building strength and support, gaining the confidence of more and more Canadians and poised for a breakthrough to, at the very least, a minority government situation of their own. But Quebec is the X factor. Will French Canadians be satisfied by NDP representation? Do the NDP know what to do/have what it takes to keep French Canadians in the supporters column? It should be interesting to see what the new Quebecois influence will have on the New Democrats.

Liberals - 34 seats - 18.91 per cent of the popular vote

Ouch. There are no words. This is easily the most crushing defeat of a major Canadian political party since the PC's in 1993 (with one exception discussed next). Michael Ignatieff, once the promise of a new generation of Liberal power, is defeated on almost every level, including personal, losing his own riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore by nearly 3,000 votes to Tory Bernard Trottier. The case of Ignatieff is that once again the candidate that looked good on paper did not translate into ballots checked. The Liberals were too soft in response to Conservative attack ads and just couldn't get past the assault. A prime minister and party censured for the first time ever by Parliament, accusations of secret keeping and other shadowy activities, and an economy still in a relative shambles, and the Liberals still weren't able to capitalize. Where was the disconnect?

The answer to that is, in part, because of Ignatieff's charisma gap, but it's not all on him. The NDP surge was too strong, and the momentum was with Jack Layton. The Liberals couldn't make the point to vote strategically, and if they could, people were already starting to think of the NDP as the strategic option. Where does the Liberal Party go from here? Well, not gently into that good night. There may be an opportunity for rebound, if only because the party still has nearly three dozen MPs in the House, and a storied history that goes back to Confederation. The gap may still be too wide for official merger talks with the NDP, and Layton may not think he needs the help, but there is the possibility, and likely probability, for more collusion. As for leader replacements, that's going to be tough; tough to see who might step in, tough to see how anyone can turn the boat around. But if the Liberals could say one thing this morning, it's that they aren't the...

Bloc Quebecois - 4 seats - 6.05 per cent of the popular vote 

Considering the enormous personal popularity of Gilles Duceppe, it seems that Quebecers left the party like rats fleeing a sinking ship. I don't think anyone called this reversal of fortune for the Bloc, even me. As I pointed out the day before the election, the Bloc surges and then it ebbs. But in this case, it's like the tide went out completely, and the question is will it ever return? Can the Bloc come back from this defeat? It depends on how you answer this question: Is separation still important to a significant percentage of French Canadians? If the answer is yes, then the Bloc will be back in some form in 2015; if not, then this might be the last we've seen of the Separatist Party. 

Green Party - 1 seat - 3.9 per cent of the popular vote

Elizabeth May finally won her seat in the House of Commons, but the cost seems to be a loss of about half of the Green Party's popular support over the 2008 election (in '08, that was 6.8 per cent). Really, the Greens were as much a victim of the NDP's surge as the Liberals, but that didn't stop May from making history by becoming the Green MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands. (And not only that, but she defeated Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn by over 7,000 votes.) The question is what happens now? Can May be effectual in the House as a party of one? Where do the Green Party's fortunes go from here? One thing's for sure, no one will be able to block May from a leaders' debate again.

But no matter what happens next, this is what Canada looks like today. Who would have guessed that 40 days ago...?

The Final Countdown

So the most surprising part of the budget was that there were no surprises in the budget. Shoot, even the CBC didn't show it live and instead unleashed the talking heads as Jim Flaherty laid it down for the House.

On the plus side. there's lots of stimulus: $40 billion in the next two years, but on the down side we're looking at $85 billion in deficits over the next five. Then there's $20 billion in personal income tax cuts this fiscal year and business taxes too are also cut by $2 billion, with up to $200 billion to be made available to businesses in liquidity and financing to ensure Canadian consumers and businesses have access to credit. The unemployed get five extra weeks of E/I, but nothing will be done to accelerate the time in which applicants can start receiving those funds.

Quebec? Hosed, changes to the equalization formula will go forward. Cities? Sure, they're going to get some of that infrastructure cash, but they'll have to navigate the usual governmental obstacle course of red tape to get the money. Conservative street cred in being the stewards of sound and balanced budgets? Gone, Flaherty was all about taking a chance because "These are extraordinary times," he said in a news conference.

And that's not to mention the seriously, sudden turn to a more conciliatory tone coming from the Finance Minister and, by proxy, the Prime Minister's Office. "In the past quarter, the world economy has deteriorated substantially. We consulted broadly with Canadians (and) what we heard from Canadians is that we need to do certain things right away to stimulate the economy."

Well not according to the NDP and Bloc. Giles Duceppe said that there was "nothing in [the budget] to obtain our support." And Jack Layton said it fails to "protect the vulnerable, doesn't create jobs for today and doesn't create jobs for tomorrow." So the fate of the Harper government is now up to Michael Ignatieff in his first real test as Liberal leader. But Layton warned Red leader today, through reporters, that it's "absolutely" Ignatieff's responsibility to defeat the budget because it fails to meet the tests "at a minimum" that he set out for his support.

Oh. what to do, what to do? I'm sure it's going to be a sleepless night for Iggy, but we'll know by 11 am tomorrow what way he's going to swing. Smart money says he'll support the budget with conditions. But it appears in the meantime that things are back to normal on Parliament Hill: the NDP and the Bloc hate everything, the Conservatives get stabby and the Liberals are forced to decide how deep they want the shiv to go.

Look! A press release:

Frank Valeriote reviewing budget with caucus

Frank Valeriote, Member of Parliament, is joining his Liberal colleagues for a careful review of the federal budget.

"The Liberal party has been clear and concise on what we wanted to see in the budget—protection for the most vulnerable Canadians, protection of Canadian jobs and creation of the jobs of tomorrow," said Valeriote. "This government is long-overdue for action to address the economic crisis. This budget must be considered carefully to determine if it will provide the action necessary to get our economy back on track. Above all else, the Liberal Party will act in the best interests of the country."

The economic challenges facing Canada were evident long before the government tabled its autumn economic statement and Parliament was prorogued. It is discouraging that this Conservative government has taken so long to signal a willingness to act.

In September, the Prime Minister said if we were going to have a recession, we would have had it by now. In October, he told us there was no recession, but there were ―a lot of great buying opportunities emerging as a consequence of all the panic.‖ In November, Mr. Flaherty presented an economic update setting out a surplus, when now we know that this Conservative government was aware we were headed into a recession and nevertheless mislead us about it.

"Over 100,000 Canadians have lost their jobs in the past two months. It is absolutely unacceptable that this government has wasted time playing political games instead of focusing on the economic crisis," said Valeriote. "It makes one wonder whether we can believe anything that comes out of this Conservative government."

"In these tough economic times Liberals will do our best to make Parliament work for the sake of Canadians," said Valeriote. "However, making Parliament work does not mean that the Prime Minister gets a free ride – he remains accountable to all Canadians and Parliament."