No Dead Heat in Guelph

A Forum Research poll released over the weekend has some sad news for people hoping for a changing of the guard in Queen's Park for Guelph, and their supporters. The poll showed that Liberal Liz Sandals will walk to re-election with 37.6 per cent of the vote. PC Greg Schirk comes in second with 30.3 per cent followed by NDP James Gordon and Green Steve Dyck with 21.9 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.

Meanwhile, province-wide, it remains a toss up as to what the political landscape in Ontario is going to look like a week from Thursday. Across Ontario, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are in a statistical dead heat, with the NDP in a respectable, but distant 23 per cent. With these numbers and others, ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model shows that the Liberals are likely to win 55 seats, which is one more than they need for a majority. It’s a loss of 15 seats for the Grits, but just barely enough to win their third majority. 

Not to brag, but unless there's a major (or is that minor) change in the situation it appears that the prediction I made on CFRU's Beyond the Ballot Box before the start of the campaign will pan out on Election Day.