With 5 days to go until the by-election (or 7 more weeks till a general election), I got a press release from the Green Party saying that they've received poll results that say that say they're in second place Amongst Guelph voters. Like the much disputed Klr Vu poll, Frank Valeriote leads by a wide margin.
The poll breaks down thusly:
Frank Valeriote, Liberals - 38.4 per cent
Mike Nagy Green Party - 24.2 per cent
Gloria Kovach, Conservatives - 12.6 per cent
Tom King, NDP - 8.0 per cent
Undecided - 16.7 per cent
From the press release: "The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on September 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20. The Green Party achieved a long-cherished goal of having its first MP in Parliament last Saturday when independent MP Blair Wilson announced his move to the party."
These results are interesting indeed, and anecdotally I can believe it. I've seen Green signs in places I had never thought I'd see them. I will say that Oraclepoll doesn't seems as sketchy as Klr Vu, their website has a long list of clients.
Anyway, I believe wholeheartedly that Green's have got more momentum than ever. The trick will be whether or not they can maintain that momentum in the face of general election developments, but we'll see. Mike Nagy will be among his people tomorrow regardless, the students of the University of Guelph. The U of G is hosting a debate in Peter Clark Hall between 6 and 8 pm.
The poll breaks down thusly:
Frank Valeriote, Liberals - 38.4 per cent
Mike Nagy Green Party - 24.2 per cent
Gloria Kovach, Conservatives - 12.6 per cent
Tom King, NDP - 8.0 per cent
Undecided - 16.7 per cent
From the press release: "The Oraclepoll survey was conducted on September 1 and 2 with 300 electors who say they are certain to vote. The polls margin of error is +/-5.7%, 19 times out of 20. The Green Party achieved a long-cherished goal of having its first MP in Parliament last Saturday when independent MP Blair Wilson announced his move to the party."
These results are interesting indeed, and anecdotally I can believe it. I've seen Green signs in places I had never thought I'd see them. I will say that Oraclepoll doesn't seems as sketchy as Klr Vu, their website has a long list of clients.
Anyway, I believe wholeheartedly that Green's have got more momentum than ever. The trick will be whether or not they can maintain that momentum in the face of general election developments, but we'll see. Mike Nagy will be among his people tomorrow regardless, the students of the University of Guelph. The U of G is hosting a debate in Peter Clark Hall between 6 and 8 pm.
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The question becomes can they hold the momentum into a general election.
So, we're supposed to believe that Tom King is at 8% when Ed Pickersgill got a higher percentage of the vote in 2000 and Phil Allt got 22% last election. Right. Note that the Oracle Poll does not indicate that the 300 people polled were part of a random sample. The Greens have a history of releasing bogus internal polls during by-election campaigns.
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