About the Blog:

Guelph Politico is locally sourced and dedicated to covering the political and cultural scene in the City of Guelph. Est. 2008.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Guelph: Liberal Forever?

Finally, we got some poll data yesterday. From a company called KlrVu Research, we get the following breakdown:

Frank Valeriote (Lib) - 37 %
Gloria Kovach (CPC) - 26 %
Mike Nagy (GPC)) - 19 %
Tom King (NDP) - 18 %

Here's what KlrVu has to say about the poll: "This poll was completed in two rounds on July 27th and August 13th, sampling over 3396 random residents of the Guelph constituency representing nearly nine percent of households with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of 2%"

Almost 3,400 people. That's a pretty big sample size, especially when you... Wait. What was that? "It’s been pointed out in comments that this polling company is the same firm that was used by pro-life groups a month or so back to try and justify that a majority of Canadians opposed Henry Morgentaler’s receiving the Order of Canada, which was questionable to say the least, since only 7000+ respondents out of 157,115 called actually responded to this poll question." - from Scott's Diatribes.

Okay, but even if this is a Conservative leaning polling company, and they've cooked up an allegedly bogus poll, why put out Valeriote as the front-runner. The theory over at Blogging a Dead Horse seems to be that the Conservatives want to position this as a race between just them and the Liberals, and thus marginalizing the NDP's Tom King (And presumably Mike Nagy as well).

I'm not sure where the benefit is in that for the Conservatives. My own concerns are the fact that this is a poll from a company I've never heard of and whose only other poll is dubious at best. Basically, I don't think Valeriote should take the weekend off and kick up his heels secure in the knowledge that he has a 10-point lead. I agree with Scott's take and suggestion that "the Liberal team is to continue to work on the ground as if you’re 10 points down, not 10 points up."

In other news the final list of all of Guelph's by-election candidates was released this week. And your options are:

Libertarian Party of Canada - Philip Bender
New Democratic Party - Tom King
Marijuana Party - Kornelis Klevering
Conservative Party of Canada - Gloria Kovach
Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada - Karen Levenson
Green Party of Canada - Mike Nagy
Independent - John Turmel
Liberal Party of Canada - Frank Valeriote.


Scott Tribe said...

Well, one other theory is (if you believe its a bogus poll) that they're releasing it to try and a) motivate their own troops and b)get the Liberals complacent or overconfident.

Another is that perhaps it's an attempt to persuade soft Liberal votes it's ok to vote NDP or Green, splitting the centre-left progressive vote, thus allowing Kovach to come up the middle.

That is all possible.. but as you say, my view is if it is a partisan poll, it still sucks for the Cons to be 10 points behind in it.

I've written the pollster asking them how many of those 3396 respondents they called decided not to answer the questions or hung up - no reply yet though.

Chris said...

Just going with my gut here, but that poll seems way off.

Scott Tribe said...

I guess that depends who you're rooting for ;)