Democracy Guelph Still Hopeful on Reform at Street Celebration

Earlier this summer, the House of Commons seemed to put the final nail in the coffin on electoral reform when the government voted against accepting the recommendations of the special Commons committee. Democracy Guelph is aiming to say though that the coffin hasn't been nailed shut. In fact, there is no coffin.

GUELPH POLITICAST #67 - The Voices of Electoral Reform

Two protests in two weeks. Guelph hasn't been this riled up about something since the anti-Walmart days! But the passionate demands of Guelphites for electoral reform seems to have not been silenced by the apparent disinterest of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to keep his campaign promises. In fact, the PM's dismissal of the issues seems to have created a new urgency.

GUELPH POLITICAST #63 - Electoral Reform Redux

It was a little over six months ago that I sat down with Steve Dyck and Ken MacKay of Fair Vote Canada's Guelph branch to talk about electoral reform, it's various options, and what form it might take when the Trudeau government came back with its options this past December. Those were the days.

Robocall Townhall Shows Community Still Worried

Are you worried about another robocall scandal? Judging from the turnout at a townhall at St. James Anglican Church here in Guelph today, a lot of us are. Between 80 and 100 people showed up for the event organized by Fair Vote Guelph and the St. James' Environment and Social Justice Committee, and on the eve of the start of the last parliamentary session before the 2015 election, it sure sounded like there was still a lot to be concerned about even after the conviction of Michael Sona last summer. A combination of politicians, experts and ordinary citizens came out to remember how we got here, and what we should be on the look out next.

Schreiner is Staying in Guelph for 2018

It's municipal election craziness time across Ontario so you might have missed the news, but at their recent annual general meeting, the Green Party of Ontario agreed by a margin of 96 per cent to keep Mike Schreiner as their leader. Coming out of that news though is that when the next provincial election comes around again in 2018, Schreiner will run again in Guelph.

The Results Show

The results of the 2011 Ontario Provincial Election were really no surprise to anyone because no one really knew what was going to happen. 

In Guelph, Liz Sandals handily strode to a third consecutive victory with 19,734 votes, a loss of barely 450 over her total vote load in 2007. But that wasn't the real story in Guelph; the more interesting number was 802, as in the number of votes that separated PC Greg Schirk and NDP James Gordon. Schirk won 11,950 votes to Gordon's 11,148. For Schirk it was a marginal 308 vote loss over what Bob Senechal brought in for the PCs in 2007, but for Gordon it meant a 63 per cent improvement over Karan Mann-Bowers, who ran for the NDP in the last election. Sadly for local Greens, Steve Dyck was only able to collect 3,234 votes, or barely a third of the votes of Ben Polley's third place finish in 2007.

So what do we make of Sandals' easy hat trick? Beating her nearest competition nearly 7,800 votes due to strategic voting may be overstating the influence of that constituency. It's more likely that Guelph voters are satisfied with Sandals representation because the opposition's idea that there's a great ground swell in the riding/city of people unsatisfied with her time as MPP certainly wasn't represented in the polls yesterday.

Perhaps the real surprise of the election is that Premier Dalton McGuinty came so close to his third majority; a single seat separated him from a minority-proof 54, despite the fact that he was elected for an historic third term with a minority government. Trailing the polls for more or less the last year until a week after the writ was dropped, a McGuinty victory was an uncertain prospect. 

In context though, the McGuinty Liberals still lost 18 seats from their second election in 2007. That's not a number easy to sneeze, but I doubt the Liberals today are really caring. On the other side of the aisle, a seven seat addition to the NDP caucus will bolster Andrea Horwath's influence in Queen's Park, while Tim Hudak, who despite winning an handsome 12 seat addition to his party or a total of 37, may have some explaining to do. The last few days of his campaign were ugly, and some in his party may be wondering how, despite the poll numbers, the PCs were only able to wound, and not topple, the McGuinty Liberals. Respectfully, this was Hudak's first election, and that fact alone may reflect the result as many weren't yet sold on Hudak, or reserved voting for him until he's had more experience.

One thing that's hard to deny is that there's a new kind of regionalism in effect in Ontario. 

 

 Looking at the electoral map, Ontario is like a centaur: a big orange torso, with blue bottoms highlighted by red spots. The NDP runs the north and several urban centres, the PCs hold rural Ontario and towns and cities just beyond the borders of the GTA, and the Liberals represent the urbane areas of Ontario, particularly Toronto and the GTA. If the McGuinty government is to survive till 2015, the Premier will have to make small moves to make places outside Toronto feel like their part of the process; he'll have to reach out more and fight the most damning condemnation of his government: that it's a Toronto-down organization.

But will a minority McGuinty government in Ontario be under the same kind of attack recent minority governments federally were? Unsure. For one thing, there's that one seat margin that kept McGuinty from majority status, a much closer margin than either Paul Martin or Stephen Harper enjoyed. With so many close races, not to mention an exceedingly low voter turnout, a redo, impromptu election sometime in the next couple of years might work in McGuinty's favour. Then there's the Hudak factor. There are some grumblings about how much the PC leader didn't help the cause with comparisons to the increasing unpopular Rob Ford and commitment to potentially xenophobic and homophobic policies on the campaign trail. In an election where everything seemed in his favour to win, the reasons for Hudak's fortunes are multiple choice.

Either way, it's a new day, (almost) the same as old day in Ontario. Where will go to next?

No Dead Heat in Guelph

A Forum Research poll released over the weekend has some sad news for people hoping for a changing of the guard in Queen's Park for Guelph, and their supporters. The poll showed that Liberal Liz Sandals will walk to re-election with 37.6 per cent of the vote. PC Greg Schirk comes in second with 30.3 per cent followed by NDP James Gordon and Green Steve Dyck with 21.9 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.

Meanwhile, province-wide, it remains a toss up as to what the political landscape in Ontario is going to look like a week from Thursday. Across Ontario, the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are in a statistical dead heat, with the NDP in a respectable, but distant 23 per cent. With these numbers and others, ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model shows that the Liberals are likely to win 55 seats, which is one more than they need for a majority. It’s a loss of 15 seats for the Grits, but just barely enough to win their third majority. 

Not to brag, but unless there's a major (or is that minor) change in the situation it appears that the prediction I made on CFRU's Beyond the Ballot Box before the start of the campaign will pan out on Election Day.

Mercury Debate Stays Civil, Has a Few Laughs, But No Blows

The crowd that gathered at the Italian Canadian Club to hear the all-candidates debate between the seven candidates running for MPP of Guelph were treated to hearty and occasionally frank discussion about the issues affecting the people of Guelph. Those of us who watched online, were irked by pop-ups and obnoxiously loud ads.

Still, despite those petty annoyances, there was a lot to appreciate about the night's events. First of all, the Mercury opened the door to all candidates, giving so-called fringe candidates a platform they don't usually enjoy: a major debate. Second, all the candidates came and were ready to have an honest exchange, and nary a spec of mud was slung.

Despite the format and the number of candidates, a lot of ground was covered during the nearly hour and half debate. Here's a breakdown of my thoughts on the debate per candidate:

Philip Bender (Libertarian) - It takes a lot of guts to be one of the two guys to slant right, but it takes even more to be one guy to advocate less government intervention when all the questioners seemed to be inquiring about more. Bender stayed mostly ideological in the debate, not really referring back to Guelph as to how his policies and ideas might affect our city, but even if he did, I don't think it would have mattered much. A lot of people asked questions about transit, help for students, and concerns about healthcare, and Bender's message that the market will out, in the face of those voter concerns, seemed rather hollow.

Liz Sandals (Liberal) - As the incumbent, Sandals took the most hits, but as a wise man once said, it's not how many hits you take, but whether or not you're still standing by the end. By this standard, Sandals rose to the occasion and in the process managed to stay above attacking other parties and driving home the Liberal platform for the future as well as past accomplishments. And despite the discussion about Guelphites feeling like they're not being heard, a percentage of people watching online seemed as if they were hearing Sandals, with many of the insta-polls giving her the edge.

Greg Schirk (PC) - Like Bender, Schirk was the face for the ideological right (albeit centre-right), however unlike Bender, he put a Guelph-minded face on the issues and came across as personable and invested in the Royal City. Schirk's goal for the night was to portray a feasible alternative to Sandals, and to downplay notions, in particular from some further down at the table, that a PC vote isn't a vote for the boogie man. I think he was a success on both counts, and even people online who I know wouldn't vote PC in a million years agree that Schirk seems like a good man, and a good candidate. He also stayed above a lot of personal attacks, and admitted that he didn't like his own party's TV attack ads.

Steve Dyck (Green) - If one person shattered expectations last night, I think it was Steve Dyck. The Green Party candidate came out swinging - hard - and pushed against all the other major party candidates. (If you've listened to the Dyck Politicast, you know that he doesn't even give the NDP benefit of the doubt.) By far, Dyck's biggest strike of the night was on the question of MPP availability, which Dyck accused Sandals of being unavailable when trying to propose a solar energy project for a downtown church, seemingly knocking Sandals off her perch for a brief moment. In all, I think Dyck single-handedly dispelled the popular appearance of the hippie-dippy Green nominee into something that means business. The coup de grâce: "I claim those 1,000 [Green] jobs [created in Ontario] for the Green Party."

James Gordon (NDP) - Sticking to form, Gordon was calm and cool, and seemed content to present the NDP platform without trying to make too much hay at the expense of the other candidates. When the opportunity presented itself, he did pile on the "Liz doesn't listen" express, if only to help promote his own efforts to take the conversation directly to the people of Guelph with the past summer's "Listening Tour." 

Drew Garvie (Communist) - Garvie held his own, and along with one other candidate got the best lines of the night. With four campaigns in four years, of course Garvie was arguably the most experienced candidate on stage, and was able to land some pretty compelling blows on the other candidates, and for the his policy on issues.

Julian Ichim (Independent) - Ichim began with a bold statement: "I've caused enough trouble outside of Parliament, imagine what I can do inside." He then expounded on the need to recall elected officials if they fail to meet up to the expectations of their constituents and how the poor have limited access to the system and are often disregarded for the interests of wealthy individuals and corporations. For Ichim, I think the strategy was to sell the contrary point of view, and to make people try and think twice about what's important to them. Of course, Ichim had his somewhat nefarious reputation to combat as well, but I think his message was received.

Guelph Politicast #1 - Steve Dyck

Finally! 

Having trouble making voting decisions until you get the Guelph Politco interview? Never fear, because I have finally begun posting my interviews with the candidates running in Guelph this provincial election, and this time, it's a podcast! There will be a podcast for each candidate, so keep coming back here to see when I post the next one until, hopefully, you've heard from all the candidates. 

And I am pleased to say that I've received a warm reception from all the campaigns. The conversations I've had so far have been really good, and it seems like the candidates themselves have been enjoying the format. I'm kicking myself for not thinking of this sooner, but better late than never I suppose. It's one small step for multimedia; one giant leap for Guelph Politico.

So without further ado, let's get to the podcast. First up is Steve Dyck, the Green Party of Ontario candidate. I'll save the intro because it's all there in the podcast, so just click play and listen to the conversation.

Summer Editorial Series – Parsing the Slate

Last Monday, the Guelph Progressive Conservative Riding Association had their nomination meeting and selected local businessman Greg Schirk as their candidate for this Fall’s Provincial Election. With that belated selection, the slate of four main party candidates was complete for the riding of Guelph, which means the election season is unofficially underway, at least until the writ is dropped at the end of summer.

So with about a month to spare till the campaign begins in earnest, lets take a look at the names we’ll be seeing on the ballot, their strengths and weaknesses, and maybe what the political landscape, provincially-speaking, is going to look like on October 6th.

Liz Sandals – Liberal

Incumbent Candidate

2007 Election: Won by 20,346 votes; 40.92 per cent

Sandals is a quality candidate: stalwart, loyal and a background of committed public service to the community she represents. On the other hand, there’s not a lot of love out there for her boss, Premier Dalton McGuinty. A recent opinion poll put PC leader Tim Hudak up 11 percentage points on McGuinty, with people citing issues like the HST and hydro prices as reasons for backing the Official Opposition, but since they literally rebelled against the HST in BC, how bad could we hate it here? Still, Sandals may be the nice, safe choice. She works hard, she does her job, and the only press she makes has to do with funding announcements and facility openings. Plus, if the comments in the blogosphere are to be believed, a lot of people in the city are on her side with the whole Health Unit drama. Maybe that’s enough for a hat trick.

Greg Schirk – Progressive Conservative

2007 Election: PC candidate Bob Senechal received 12,180 votes; 24.49 per cent

Schirk is an accomplished entrepreneur and a life-long Guelph resident, and in this business they call that cache. But in all seriousness, Schirk is going to be tough competition for Sandals, especially if the poll numbers continue to hold up in Hudak’s favour. But ay, there’s the rub. Who’s preoccupied with politics in the middle of a heat wave? Well, except you and me, of course. Still, Sandals should not be underestimated, and neither should the people of Guelph and their affinity for our Liberal representatives. In her last election, the people and the press were junk piling on Brenda Chamberlain for things like voting against same sex marriage. Yet, she still won her final election in 2006 by a healthy margin, and against a very attractive Conservative candidate. Sometimes, the odds go out the window.

Steve Dyck – Green Party of Ontario

2007 Election: Green candidate Ben Polley received 9,750 votes; 19.61 per cent

On paper, Dyck has got it going on. He’s a local businessman (he’s President of Guelph Solar Mechanical Inc., a solar heating solutions company), he’s a trained mediator, and he knows how to socialize (he’s the inventor of Green Drinks, a regular Green Party social). The man has definitely got his Green credentials down, but the question is if Dyck will be able to capitalize on Polley’s gains in 2007? That’s a tough one if you consider the results of the recent Federal election. Like Polley, Mike Nagy ran before and was able to capitalize on previous gains. In 2011, John Lawson wasn’t able to keep pace, and perhaps lost ground to the resurgent Liberal. Could Steve Dyck be looking at a similar fate in his own 2011 race?

James Gordon – New Democratic Party

2007 Election: NDP candidate Karan Mann-Bowers received 6,880 votes; 13.84 per cent

While it seems unlikely that an Orange Revolution will sweep Ontario, the ascension of Andrea Horwath to the leadership of the party means good news for the NDP, and the same can be said of Gordon’s nomination locally. Advantage one: name cache. People know the name James Gordon, and if they don’t like his politics, they might surely appreciate his unique brand of folk music. Advantage two: Gordon is no fly by night politico. He knows the issues and has been engaged in local politics for some time. In short, he’s accomplished. The problem? The NDP don’t have a lot of success with local celebrities, but maybe this time it’ll be different.

Stay tuned, because it’s countdown to Election Day. Well, again. Election Day 2! “The Wrath of Hudak.” “The Search for Dalton.” “The Voyage Horwath.” Whatever you want to call it. We’ll see you in September with more election news, and see you next week with more editorializing.

Steve Dyck Will Be Green for Guelph

The Guelph branch of the Green Party of Ontario voted between the two men who put their names forward to represent the GPO for the Royal City in the upcoming Provincial Election last night, and Steve Dyck seems to be the man they want Guelph to send to Queen's Park. Dyck, a long time Green Party campaigner, beat out former Ward 4 City Councillor Mike Salisbury for the honour. 

So who is Steve Dyck? Here's his GPO bio:

A long time enthusiast for the Green Party’s approach to environmental, social, and economic sustainability, Steve decided to run for the GPO candidacy because he believes he has the energy and skills to engage people in the democratic process. A highly creative and socially engaged problem solver, Steve is equipped to represent Guelph and serve in Provincial Parliament, bringing long-term solutions to Ontario’s challenges. Steve takes action in the community.

• He is President of Guelph Solar Mechanical Inc., a solar heating solutions company which leads Guelph business owners and residents to participate in energy conservation programs.
• Steve stands up for democracy, the University of Guelph’s intellectual integrity and the environment, by continuing to raise Chancellor Wallin’s actions as a Senator to end debate on climate change.
• A trained mediator who voluntarily assists community members to mutually resolve differences, Steve builds bridges between people by using democratic processes to identify common values and create solutions.
• Steve coordinates the Guelph chapter of Green Drinks, a social networking group connecting citizens and businesses in the environmental industry.

The time is right for Steve to seek political office: Ontario’s energy crisis requires renewable energy expertise. As he and Vera, his partner of 20 years, send their two teenagers out into the world, Steve is enthusiastic about bringing his years as a parent, volunteer, activist, project manager, and small business owner to the political arena.

“Community building is central to the future of the Green Party,” says Steve, a philosophy he has demonstrated by opening his home for events that have become known as “Fun with Steve” nights, engaging neighbours and building Green Party membership while enjoying locally sourced food.

Steve’s central values are long- term commitment to the things that matter: building healthy relationships and communities, and having a great time doing it.

Next up, the NDP will officially make James Gordon their nominee on Monday. Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath will be in town that night to welcome Gordon to the campaign. Interestingly, GPO leader Mike Schreiner was the key note speaker at last night's AGM, which I believe was the second time in as many weeks that Schreiner's been in Guelph. 

Is Guelph a seriously in play riding this provincial election? I guess we'll know that if Dalton McGuinty and Tim Hudak roll up the Hanlon Expressway this summer.