About the Blog:

Guelph Politico is locally sourced and dedicated to covering the political and cultural scene in the City of Guelph. Est. 2008.

Monday, October 13, 2008

One Day at a Time

Happy Thanksgiving to one and all! And happy Election Day's Eve to the same, although I say this especially to the citizens of Guelph. Remember the last Election Day's Eve when our by-election was canceled less than 24 hours before the polls opened in favour of a Federal race? Oh, good times!

But seriously, it seems we have no idea what's going to go down tomorrow. In town its a tight race, and across the nation, in a poll cited on CTV News last night, 46 per cent said that they haven't firmed up their decision about whom they're voting for with 12 per cent adding that they probably won't make their minds until they get to the ballot box.

What does this mean? Strategic Voting, my friends. A poll done by Ipsos-Reid for the Canwest News Service back during the first week of the campaign showed that 54 per cent of Canadians were not in favour of a Conservative majority government and that 38 per cent of them were prepared to vote strategically to prevent it.

The CTV/Global and Mail poll showed the Election Day numbers thusly:
* Conservative: 33 per cent (-2)

* Liberal: 28 per cent (-2)
* NDP: 18 per cent (none)
* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)
* Green Party: 11 per cent (+6)

The only party to make gains going into the last weekend of campaigning was the Green Party and one would figure if the trend was going towards strategic voting, than they'd be showing a loss. Confused yet? Yeah, me too.

Now pollsters say that 40 per cent in the polls is a good indication as to whether or not a party is going to end up with a majority government and with the Conservatives hovering around roughly a solid third of the nation in support, things seem unlikely for Harper's majority hopes. So it begs the question: if the Conservatives win, does that mean we'll get another Conservative-led Parliament? Not necessarily.

Many think that should Harper win another minority, it might spur a couple of the other parties to set aside differences out of the common interest in not seeing Harper as PM. The likely team-up would be the Liberals and NDP, it's been done before in Ontario, and a lot of people are wondering why it can't be done again. Even Gilles Duceppe has swallowed hard and said that he'd be interested in a limited partnership with the Liberals, on issues such as the environment, so long as it's in the best interest of Quebecers.

In the same CTV/Globe poll, 46 per cent of the responders said that they'd favour a Lib-NDP coalition to usurp the Conservatives, while 41 per cent said that they did not. Pollsters said that these numbers fell mostly within party lines. You will note however that pollsters are the only ones open to the possibility right now. In Halifax Thursday, Dion emphatically ruled it out, and when I broached the subject with Bob Rae in our brief talk on Friday, he said that the Liberals were focused on winning a majority and that any talk of coalitions was extremely pre-mature.

So it should be interesting to see the reutrns tomorrow night, to say the least.

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